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P-value interpretation — FRCA Primary MCQ

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HardStatistics and EBMP-value interpretationFRCA Primary

A small randomised trial reports p = 0.03 for nausea within 24 hours. Which statement is most accurate?

Educational content. Not a substitute for clinical judgement or local policy.

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Correct answer: A — The data would be relatively unlikely if the null hypothesis were true

The best answer is “The data would be relatively unlikely if the null hypothesis were true”. A p value is the probability of observing data at least this extreme, assuming the null hypothesis and the statistical model are true. It is not the probability that the null is true, a probability of treatment benefit, a measure of bias, or proof of clinical importance.

Reference: NICE, Developing NICE guidelines: Reviewing evidence: https://www.nice.org.uk/process/pmg20/chapter/reviewing-evidence