A 58-year-old woman presents with progressive tiredness and low mood. HbA1c is 6.2% (44 mmol/mol). Lipids show total cholesterol 6.0 mmol/L, LDL 3.8 mmol/L, HDL 1.0 mmol/L, triglycerides 1.8 mmol/L. She has no cardiovascular disease but is a smoker. According to Australian CVD risk guidelines, what is the key factor to guide statin initiation?